Explaining and understanding a monster downswing

So if anyone has been following my results since I have been living in Costa Rica they will have noticed a pretty unusual sight in my sharkscope graph, I like to call it the 'monster downswing'. I guess to a lot of regs this swing isn't so bad and for me mentally I feel it's ok to handle too, but just the uniqueness of this swing due to moving up and down stakes is really quite interesting and felt like explaining why a swing like this can and will happen when playing high stakes super turbos over hundreds of thousands of hands.

First of all I would like to share my all in ev since recorded from mid March, the graph is missing around 10k hands from the first week when I made the switch to Pokerstars.

For people who do not understand these graphs basically the orange line is your all in expected value (ev) which basically gives you a good idea of how well you are playing only using maths and no other factors. The blue line shows you what is actually happening with the luck element which is involved in poker. In the short term you can see major differences in these two lines but in the long run you will see a trend that these two lines will overlap each other on many occasions and the difference over the very long run will be almost impossible to see, which also can explain there isn't luck involved in long term poker.

This downswing doesn't look to crazy when looking at this graph, in fact it looks pretty similar to the others I have had in the past. So why does this one seem to drag on for so long and how comes in actual results I am down $30,000 when my blue line says I haven't lost anything, we need to look into this small time period in a bit more depth to see what is going on.

Here we can see the same graph but only the time whilst I have been in Costa Rica. The orange line here indicates I should be up around 40+ buyins (1*) and the blue line indicates I should be up around 1buy in and I actually am up one buy in since I been here. So if I am up one buy in, why am I down $30,000?
These two graphs will help explain:

The first graph shows the actual amount of money through the time period and the second graph shows the 'ROI' (Return on investment) at each different stake as you can see I have run way worse in high stake games to lower stake games. Now this really helps explain where things have gone wrong. The fact that I am playing multiple stakes is really the key to this swing. Running bad in high stakes and running good in low stakes can really make a downswing last a lot longer and a lot more drastic than it would have if I was only playing one stake. If I had been playing one stake the entire way through the downswing I would actually be in profit through this period.
I obviously cannot complain about this because I have had many experiences of running better at high stakes than low stakes, and it's something that will Iron out over a longer time period these things just kind of have to happen. I also can never complain because as some of you know I had some killer months before coming here where I really crushed the Hyper turbo's on stars well the opposite thing was happening there, I was running above ev but I was also running better in the higher stake games and worse in the lower stake games so I have to have a neutral feeling towards the downswing as I do the upswing just to keep my head cool and concentrated to the fullest.

(1*)Calculating how many buy ins I should be up is pretty hard because the program I use 'Poker Copilot' calculates the hands in 'bb' (big blinds not big bets) and not in actual buy ins but I give 25bbs for one buy in seen as 25bbs = 1 buy in when you buy into the Hyper turbo Sng. I am not sure if this is mathematically correct due to the constant change in blinds in each Sng but for arguments sake I will keep it like this to keep it simple.

Ok so that's the maths behind the swing, what about the psychology.

Using all of these graphs we can actually see some interesting stuff that can help explain how my mind set may have been effected at the early points of the swing although the entire way through I have been pretty chilled out and am happy with how I have been playing there is some points you can probably see a change in my game with result orientated adaptions my brain made unconsciously through confidence and trying to reduce the variance. (2*) Obviously we cannot use graphs like these to predict how someone is thinking but I am going to break down the swing and explain some of what has been going through my brain through out the downswing.

(2*)A note to people: normally the things our brain tell us to do in poker to reduce variance will increase it more ie, reducing our 3betting range and waiting out a better spot when we have a clear ev+ spot in front of us trust in your decision making if it's been correct in the past.

Well I hope this can explain a better view to anyone who is questioning my downswing and also to the people who might be worried, will help them to understand the maths and the psychology behind swings like this. In the end this is a business with high variance at points, all we can do is grind and play our best at all times, we can only change the out come of the future, try not to hold on to the past. I also hope this helps others who happen to have a downswing like this in the future. Don't give up, don't make irrational decisions, don't be result orientated and understand these things happen and most importantly don't let poker control your happiness levels, let other things in life and the things that poker has given you decide on how happy you are.

Costa Rica

I have been living in Costa Rica for the last 3 weeks. I arrived at the airport and was greeted by my good friend David aka Oopa11 with a beer ready for me to crack open for the journey ahead of us and to catch up on the time since we last grinded together in California last September. I was really ready to come back to a normal life of grinding after spending 10days in Vegas partying non stop.
The first couple of days we chilled and grinded and although ev was looking good, what was to become the biggest downswing of my career was about to take it's toll. After the first couple of days I was really beginning to question if I should take a few more days off and get my head around the swing but I decided I would only play sessions when I was focused and ready to grind instead.

 

(Before seeing crocodiles)

David's childhood friends, John-Michael and Matthew, came to visit us on the 3rd day in and was pretty much perfect timing for me to wind down from the downswing and really enjoy what Costa Rica had to offer.

(Legend IMO)

When they arrived we all went into the local town of Jaco to buy David and myself a surf board and headed out to the beach to begin my first day surfing, I really enjoyed the experience of it and kinda knew I would be hooked on it, but I really sucked. For anyone who hasn't surfed before I recommend everyone to try it.

(David surfing)

(John-Michael surfing)

 

(Chilling before watching the surf contest) 

After a few days of just partying, playing half arsed sessions in poker and surfing my oldest brother Neil came to visit and guess what.... Yeppp the partying continued some more :), I decided to stop playing poker for another week and enjoy the it as if I was on vacation too, and prepare myself for the hard work a head of me.

 (Everyone staying in the house)

We managed to get some tickets to see Red Hot Chili Peppers in concert which was in the City of San Jose. The concert was amazing and exceptionally good because my brother is the person who introduced me to the band when I was around 13-15 years old, and to hear all the old songs we used to listen to together again was really cool.

 

(Me and Neil)

We stayed in San Jose for another night in this really cool hostel where we met some really down to earth people and went out to party with them in the University town of San Pedro, minus a small problem our new friends id's and my finger being the target of some serious pain, the night was amazing and we all ended up having a good night celebrating the start of oopacorp and my new position of 'ceo of swagger,' (private joke) but the main highlight was David's so called friends were buying him drinks and adding shots of vodka in it.

(Everybody just have a good time)

The next morning after an hours sleep Neil and myself had to get up and go white water rafting. White water rafting is one of the most chilling experiences you can do, we went for a 18mile raft through the rain forest in a river which is rated in the top 5 in the world, so as you can imagine the views a long the way were pretty remarkable, our guide was really cool and allowed us to jump from some high up rocks into the river.

 (White water rafting)

John-Michael and Matthew's time with us had come to an end and after our long journey back to Jaco beach, Neil, David and myself decided to do one more activity before Neil was to part ways with us and go home. We decided to do Canopies, where we were driven up into the rain forest and the only way down was to go from tree to tree on a wire which reached up to speeds of 50-60 Mph. It was yet another amazing experience and after one last surf session my brothers time with us was over too.

The last 3 days David and myself have been dedicated to the grind and although my results have not been the best, I have been grinding really well and feel fully in the zone right now and although my downswing doesn't appear to look over, I feel really confident and really concentrated on playing my best poker at all times, so I feel like the downswing has ended already. It is hard to define a downswing, but to me I try not to look at the money lost and won but how well I feel I played against every opponent in each session from this point forward, because you can't change the past. I definately feel I unconsciously could have been playing less than optimal at some points in the swing but given I am playing very optimal poker again now there is no reason to consider the results as a downswing when I feel I am playing optimal in the sessions I am putting in now.

 (My ev graph bbs/hands played whilst being here)

I heard a while ago in a quote from Nikachu that it is not uncommon to go 20,000 hands running under ev at one point, so that definitely helped me come to terms with this swing. I also would like to give a good suggestion to others when they are on a downswing. Try to not look at the money amounts of your swing and change your mind on anything you are doing because of the money lost in a downswing. We are playing a game where the money amounts lost and won shouldn't (although they will) effect us, and moving up and down stakes relative to a swing is going to be very important in mentally helping your game. I am currently playing $100 and $200 games, and although it might take me longer to reach a new peak, in terms of buy ins (which we should be calculating our results by) I will reach a new peak a lot sooner than stressing myself out playing higher stakes right now. I do intend to be playing higher stakes again one day, but for now I like the stress free life of grinding mid stakes and chilling in paradise :). We have also made friends with some cool locals who like to surf too so will be definitely going to be surfing a lot and trying to master it in the next few weeks. The waves are getting good so I am going to grab my board and hit some waves now, hopefully I will stand up today :S.

Vegas

These 10 days were the best 10 days I have ever had. I don't think there were any moments I didn't enjoy myself in the time in Vegas, I was with my closest friends just chilling in Vegas. 21-23 Year olds hanging out the same as they were when they were 14year olds just instead of in London, Vegas and instead of the park, pools.
So we got of the plane and what do the guys go and do, 'lets grab the limo the line is too long for the taxi's,' I was a bit like erm should we or shouldn't we, but we all just said yes and got in it. That journey to our hotel was full of laughter, all dead stoked and everyone had a smile on. Was a really good thing we decided to take the limo. It set the tone of the holiday to have fun enjoy yourself and forget about regular things for the a while and man did we enjoy ourselves.

A few things about Vegas from my experience:
Don't stay in the MGM Grand, it looks nice on the outside but it's more old school and pretty poorly run than the other Casino's. It's older and the rooms are not up to scratch with the other casino's similar priced.
Do rolly pollies in casino lobbies.
Order tables in advance and pick a nice spot, going to one of the promoters outside the club will normally end in the unwanted spots and instead of saving money you end up wasting more.
Don't miss pool parties if your friend says 'lets go to a pool party.'
Do take a bow in front of the entire pool when someone just pulled your towel of. (not me for the record)
Don't wake up with receipts in your pocket and be confused at what you see.
Don't do impressions of pop eye in public.
Do chat to anyone who is willing to have a conversation with you, you might learn something interesting.
Don't play the same 200 big blinds deep as you do 25big blinds deep.
Do dress a pillow up with a picture or Harper's face on it.
Don't get knocked into thinking a pool party is a good place to spend money.
Do see the view at the top of the Stratosphere tower.
Do the Solja boy dance even if it's not cool anymore.
Do have a rumble with your guys and mess up the hotel room.
Don't stay sober at a pool party.
Don't stay sober in a club.
Don't stay sober in Vegas.
Don't go to Vegas for 10 days, go in, go hard and get out.

Ok so now I have been in Costa Rica for the past week and few days. I am seeing a completely new to this kind of place and am pretty amazed at it. I feel really comfortable here already and it's so peaceful and chilled out. I am living with 'Oopa11' on tilt and 'Jyg4me' on stars. We have been friends for some time now when we originally met up in Vegas last year. I will update the blog soon with more detail about this place and how am kicking but at their drinking game called 'quarters' lol.